Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2020…4a10 other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,765 (+1%) realized +$1,765 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,313per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$18
14 days−$33
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$234
politics 40% −$88
sports 11% +$1,902
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% +$163
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +1.5% -8.2% 16% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -12.3% -20.6% 10% 5% -8.6%
all 138 -3.7% -12.9% 22% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 9% -8.7%
10% -21.2% 9% -17.4%
15% -28.8% 9% -25.4%
20% -35.8% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,865) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$9 · ×10.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,765
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,313
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $368 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $348 +$1 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,781 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,517 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,769 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,277 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,880 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,985 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,150 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,862 −$3 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $74 +$52 +70%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,781 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $334 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $424 +$2 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $449 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,357 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,953 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $4,032 −$4 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $46 +$37 +79%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,865 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $4,582 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $4,084 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,642 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,250 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $1,920 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $368 18m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $368 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $271 22h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $271 25h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $678 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $679 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $643 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $644 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $757 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $789 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $790 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $656 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $656 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $676 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $677 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $709 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $710 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $714 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $715 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $348 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 11d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $932 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $830 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $831 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $830 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 457 history records