Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2024…cf1b crypto 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$972 (+18%) realized +$886 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%121W / 119L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,249
7 days+$1,086
14 days+$1,086
30 days+$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,275
crypto 44% −$138
sports 2% −$101
world 1% −$2
tech 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 20% +25.2%
≤30d 20 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 20% +25.2%
≤90d 20 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 20% +25.2%
all 240 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 44% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 44% +7.2%
10% -29.6% 34% -3.0%
15% -36.4% 22% -12.4%
20% -42.6% 14% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$886
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses121 / 119
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)240 / 245
History coverage120d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $30 $122 +$92 (+305%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $697 +$1,576 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $190 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $503 +$311 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $158 +$180 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 17 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 17 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 17 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 17 $1 +$3 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 17 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 17 $1 +$6 +612%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 17 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 17 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 17 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 17 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 17 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 17 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 17 $10 +$13 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 17 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 17 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 59m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 59m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,273 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $697 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $190 23h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 23h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $814 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $503 39h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 42h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $158 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 4d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.50 · official $205.50 (match) · 636 history records