Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x202b…971a politics 256 markets active 1d ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39,486 (-23%) realized −$41,402 · open +$1,916
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 76L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$679per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$32,617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$40,369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$38,320
world 22% −$564
other 21% +$751
culture 3% −$560
economics 2% −$186
finance 2% +$37
tech 1% −$182
sports 0% +$313
weather 0% −$12
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 44 -46.2% -51.3% 32% 16% -77.1%
≤90d 97 -37.3% -43.3% 43% 15% -42.1%
all 140 -29.5% -36.2% 46% 20% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 20% -35.9%
10% -42.3% 14% -42.0%
15% -47.9% 11% -47.6%
20% -53.0% 9% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$635 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$32,617
Realized−$41,402
Unrealized+$1,916
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions116
Markets (closed)140 / 256
History coverage588d
Avg bet$679
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 116 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,856 $2,996 +$140 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party win the GA-02 House seat? No 89¢ 93¢ $1,965 $2,045 +$80 (+4%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 56¢ 68¢ $1,505 $1,811 +$306 (+20%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1,498 $1,559 +$61 (+4%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,454 $1,545 +$91 (+6%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 59¢ 54¢ $1,523 $1,370 −$153 (-10%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 56¢ $691 $1,244 +$554 (+80%)
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 66¢ 71¢ $1,105 $1,192 +$88 (+8%)
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,149 $1,190 +$41 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $990 $996 +$6 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 71¢ 67¢ $983 $923 −$60 (-6%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 76¢ 95¢ $682 $848 +$166 (+24%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $681 $839 +$158 (+23%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $842 $794 −$48 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $763 $747 −$16 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 85¢ 85¢ $709 $707 −$2 (-0%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $670 $692 +$22 (+3%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 61¢ 72¢ $540 $638 +$98 (+18%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $565 $594 +$29 (+5%)
SHEIN IPO before 2027? No 66¢ 82¢ $431 $538 +$106 (+25%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $522 $537 +$15 (+3%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $461 $484 +$23 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 66¢ 53¢ $577 $464 −$114 (-20%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 29¢ 50¢ $256 $448 +$192 (+75%)
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $430 $430 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $156 +$4 +2%
Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 10 $59 −$6 -11%
Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06? Jun 10 $1,010 +$62 +6%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 10 $34 −$3 -8%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$8 +48%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $114 +$91 +80%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $56 −$55 -99%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 03 $97 −$94 -97%
Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $83 +$61 +72%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 01 $36 +$3 +8%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $467 +$12 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 25 above $139? May 29 $8 +$2 +33%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 29 $128 +$1 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 25 above $133? May 29 $24 +$26 +106%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 25 above $137? May 29 $20 $0 -1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 25 above $140? May 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 25 above $134? May 28 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 25 above $136? May 27 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? May 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 60B in Q1? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 55B in Q1? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026? May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 26 $303 −$303 -100%
Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? May 23 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $974 +$276 +28%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1? May 20 $93 +$4 +4%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $13,196 −$11,743 -89%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $27,975 −$20,958 -75%
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be below 80,000 vote May 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 19 $8,450 −$7,165 -85%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 6 May 19 $277 −$268 -96%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by les May 19 $30 −$10 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $77 −$32 -42%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? May 09 $7 −$6 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $7 +$10 +138%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? May 06 $428 −$428 -100%
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 0.5%? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $12 24h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $22 5d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $3 5d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $3 5d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $6 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $3 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $3 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $6 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $62 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $2 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $186 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $2 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $186 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $62 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $3 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $62 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $62 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $22 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $74 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $3 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $5 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $5 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $5 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $0 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $5 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 60¢ $44 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $62 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $4 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $51 6d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 59¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,616.56 · official $32,618.02 (match) · 2226 history records