Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2032…e43e
weather · 1596 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,831 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,644 · open −$82
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,304
Realized−$5,644
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1380 / 74
Open positions155
Markets (closed)1454 / 1596
History coverage36d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 155 History 1454 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,117
7 days−$6,162
14 days−$6,129
30 days−$6,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? No 69¢ 100¢ $20 $28 +$9 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? No 74¢ 100¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+35%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? No 76¢ 100¢ $21 $27 +$7 (+32%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 76¢ 100¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+31%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 14? No 77¢ 100¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+31%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 14? No 71¢ 98¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+39%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? No 76¢ 76¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? No 80¢ 92¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? No 90¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 14? No 91¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? No 87¢ 94¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? No 94¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 15? No 94¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? No 77¢ 81¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 89¢ 94¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? No 92¢ 96¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 93¢ 97¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 28 Jun 14 $373 −$373 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 26? Jun 14 $433 −$433 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 2? Jun 14 $465 −$465 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 18 Jun 14 $447 −$447 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 28? Jun 14 $375 −$375 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May Jun 14 $341 −$341 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 14 $445 −$445 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 23? Jun 14 $444 −$444 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25 Jun 14 $439 −$439 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 27 Jun 14 $496 −$680 -137%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 18 Jun 14 $443 −$443 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27? Jun 14 $824 −$824 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22? Jun 14 $442 −$442 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$8 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$427
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 89¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $16 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 96¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 380 -2.7% -12.0% 92% 13% -55.9%
≤30d 1339 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 8% -28.5%
≤90d 1454 +1.3% -8.4% 95% 8% -18.4%
all 1454 +1.3% -8.4% 95% 8% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 8% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 4% -26.2%
15% -25.2% 2% -33.3%
20% -32.5% 1% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,304.49 · official $2,303.72 (match) · 3500 history records