Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2037…473d
sports · 257 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
+$1,933 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,810 · open +$123
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$6,031
Realized+$1,810
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses225 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$660
Open positions3
Markets (closed)255 / 257
Avg bet$9,603
Trades / day108.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 255 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$666
7 days−$313
14 days+$667
30 days+$1,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 43¢ 44¢ $3,139 $3,249 +$110 (+3%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,896 $1,909 +$13 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? No 100¢ 100¢ $871 $873 +$1 (+0%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season G2 Esports 89¢ 0¢ $890 $0 −$890 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 93¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 12 $890 −$890 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $19,980 +$20 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4,016 +$4 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,426 +$10 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $990 +$10 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2,965 +$6 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $44,955 +$45 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10,224 +$12 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $197 −$3 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $7,882 +$55 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $176 +$10 +6%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $8,067 +$8 +0%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $16,946 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $12,986 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $795 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $6,861 +$8 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $9,607 +$10 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $51,034 +$66 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $230 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6,795 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $230 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,103 +$16 +0%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $3,937 +$10 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5,001 +$6 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,984 +$16 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4,826 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7,107 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $990 +$10 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2,944 +$108 +4%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $1,219 −$43 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,028 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $294 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,967 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $18,185 +$24 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $870 +$70 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,075 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $18,905 +$95 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $32,464 +$36 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3,839 −$115 -3%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3,974 +$20 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $2,896 −$25 -1%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $242 +$8 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,299 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 32% +$417
crypto 29% +$863
other 24% +$729
world 16% +$802
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $3,139 4h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 94¢ $189 4h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 94¢ $283 4h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 95¢ $4 4h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 95¢ $10 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $11 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $14 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $21 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,620 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 95¢ $19 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $21 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $14 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $89 5h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 95¢ $191 5h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 95¢ $32 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $2,013 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $23 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $4,353 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $2 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $4 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $164 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -2.5% -11.8% 90% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 255 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 255 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 0% -9.5%
all 255 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover108.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,030.68 · official $6,030.68 (match) · 3500 history records