Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
20 0x2038…0472 crypto 1506 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$69 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%788W / 714L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days−$35
14 days−$122
30 days−$1,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,179
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 719 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 53% -10.8%
≤30d 1309 -4.7% -13.8% 52% 52% -16.9%
≤90d 1502 -3.1% -12.4% 52% 52% -13.6%
all 1502 -3.1% -12.4% 52% 52% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 52% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 52% -21.9%
15% -28.4% 52% -29.4%
20% -35.4% 52% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses788 / 714
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1502 / 1506
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 51¢ 84¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+66%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 53¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 51¢ 68¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.06 · official $28.51 (match) · 3500 history records