Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2039…4c88 sports 87 markets active 11h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+7%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate84%73W / 14L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$28
14 days+$17
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$108
other 20% −$27
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -6.0% -14.9% 67% 40% -15.1%
≤30d 69 +7.5% -2.8% 81% 61% -4.0%
≤90d 87 +8.6% -1.8% 84% 59% -3.4%
all 87 +8.6% -1.8% 84% 59% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 59% -3.4%
10% -11.2% 32% -12.6%
15% -19.8% 16% -21.1%
20% -27.6% 9% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses73 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage57d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $27 +$3 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$28 +150%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $8 +$2 +23%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $9 +$1 +17%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $8 +$2 +20%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 11 $7 +$3 +47%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $9 −$8 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $18 +$2 +10%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 10 $17 +$3 +14%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 10 $18 +$2 +10%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 10 $17 +$3 +17%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 10 $18 +$2 +10%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $16 +$4 +29%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 09 $8 +$2 +26%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 09 $8 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs MGLBROS (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 09 $6 +$4 +57%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $16 +$4 +23%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $7 +$3 +52%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 08 $7 +$3 +34%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 08 $17 +$3 +16%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $15 +$5 +34%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $14 +$6 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playo Jun 07 $19 +$1 +4%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $5 +$5 +86%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 07 $7 +$3 +46%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $6 +$4 +67%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 06 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $70 +$18 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 10h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 48¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $9 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 68¢ $3 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $9 6d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY LOS 81¢ $8 6d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 85¢ $9 6d
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 86¢ $9 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY Misa Esports 88¢ $9 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 68¢ $3 6d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY UCAM Esports Club 83¢ $8 6d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Solary 94¢ $9 6d
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As BUY EDward Gaming Youth Team 85¢ $9 6d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records