Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2039…35d7
sports · 1542 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$289 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$288 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses381 / 1159
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1540 / 1542
Avg bet$1
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 1540 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$0
14 days−$15
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jaqueline Cristian $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Emilio Nava 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Miguel Damas 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Hernan Casanova 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Tamara Zidansek 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Marie Bouzkova 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $1 +$10 +982%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Heilbronn: Joel Schwaerzler vs Matej Dodig Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Perugia: Moez Echargui vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Michael Mmoh Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 01 $1 +$4 +343%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Kittay/Ram vs Erler/Miedler May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1 +$3 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Cezar Cretu May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Remy Bertola May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion: Orel Kimhi vs Giles Hussey May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion: Semen Pankin vs Eliakim Coulibaly May 29 $1 +$1 +107%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lautaro Midon May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Vicenza: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Mika Brunold May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Bol: Elena Korokozidi vs Marie Weckerle May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Bol: Xinran Sun vs Mia Horvit May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion: Yusuke Takahashi vs Edward Winter May 28 $2 +$1 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Assche vs Nakashima May 28 $1 +$2 +149%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $1 +$2 +152%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Timofey Skatov May 28 $1 +$4 +410%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Elizabeth Mandlik May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Little Rock: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic May 28 $1 +$3 +325%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% −$273
crypto 4% −$17
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 22¢ $1 23m
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 27¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian $1 1h
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 18¢ $1 19h
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 27¢ $1 21h
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Tamara Zidansek 23¢ $1 21h
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas BUY Miguel Damas 28¢ $1 24h
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva BUY Martin Krumich 11¢ $1 3d
ITF Zagreb: Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Elina Avanesyan BUY Tessa Johanna Brockmann 11¢ $1 3d
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 18¢ $1 3d
Bratislava: Martin Krumich vs Maxim Mrva BUY Martin Krumich 33¢ $1 3d
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova BUY Veronika Podrez 17¢ $1 3d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery $1 4d
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden BUY Matej Dodig 17¢ $1 9d
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 19¢ $1 9d
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 12¢ $1 9d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 23¢ $1 10d
Perugia: Moez Echargui vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Moez Echargui 11¢ $1 10d
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Iryna Shymanovich 29¢ $1 10d
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas SELL Timofey Skatov 100¢ $5 10d
Heilbronn: Pavel Kotov vs Guy Den Ouden BUY Pavel Kotov 19¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 20¢ $1 10d
Heilbronn: Joel Schwaerzler vs Matej Dodig BUY Joel Schwaerzler 33¢ $1 10d
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas BUY Timofey Skatov 22¢ $1 10d
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 17¢ $1 11d
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch BUY Martin Krumich 20¢ $1 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Rafael Jodar 28¢ $1 11d
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 13¢ $1 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien $1 13d
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Cezar Cretu BUY Radu Albot $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.2% -2.1% 10% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 182 -28.4% -35.3% 22% 22% -31.5%
≤90d 1320 -21.7% -29.2% 24% 24% -24.5%
all 1540 -21.8% -29.3% 25% 25% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 25% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 24% -31.4%
15% -42.2% 24% -38.0%
20% -47.9% 23% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 3500 history records