Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x203a…5792 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1
crypto 33% +$5
sports 12% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 58% -8.1%
≤30d 12 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 58% -8.1%
≤90d 12 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 58% -8.1%
all 12 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 58% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 58% -8.1%
10% -24.1% 50% -16.9%
15% -31.4% 33% -25.0%
20% -38.1% 33% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 +$4 +30%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.06 · official $62.06 (match) · 25 history records