Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x203b…9dfd other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,375 (-48%) realized −$1,358 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$39
14 days+$174
30 days−$1,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$1,132
other 28% −$332
world 8% −$10
sports 2% +$105
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.7% -12.8% 37% 37% +1.7%
≤30d 31 -5.6% -14.6% 35% 35% -63.3%
≤90d 39 -12.3% -20.6% 36% 31% -60.5%
all 39 -12.3% -20.6% 36% 31% -60.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 31% -60.5%
10% -28.2% 26% -64.3%
15% -35.2% 23% -67.7%
20% -41.5% 18% -70.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$68 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$1,358
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)39 / 50
History coverage54d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $80 $94 +$14 (+18%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 41¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$38 +47%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$10 +325%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$12 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$26 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +109%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $26 +$93 +365%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 12 $137 +$47 +34%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $73 +$14 +20%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 08 $717 −$691 -96%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 04 $224 −$220 -98%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the firs Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $280 −$275 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $10 +$6 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $100 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele May 06 $41 −$27 -66%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 03 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $5 −$5 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $80 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 23h
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 44h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $5 46h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $26 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $83 11d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $87 11d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec SELL No 100¢ $185 13d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 41¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.00 · official $211.00 (match) · 82 history records