trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +136.2% | +113.7% | 25% | 25% | -10.7% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +54.9% | +40.1% | 38% | 25% | -13.6% |
| ≤90d | 45 | +14.3% | +3.4% | 53% | 42% | -8.7% |
| all | 152 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 58% | 55% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.8% | 55% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -15.7% | 45% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -23.8% | 34% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -31.3% | 26% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Spain (-3.5) | Uruguay | 95¢ | 98¢ | $379 | $392 | +$13 (+4%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $300 | $298 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $95 | $95 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 94¢ | 86¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $67 | +$433 | +650% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $417 | −$415 | -100% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 23 | $941 | −$24 | -2% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $1,052 | −$27 | -2% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $43 | −$25 | -58% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $98 | −$80 | -81% |
| Spread: Knicks (-10.5) | Jun 13 | $50 | +$15 | +31% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 02 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 27 | $30 | +$13 | +44% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | May 19 | $49 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 19 | $60 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 03 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | Apr 22 | $5 | +$5 | +92% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 20 | $33 | +$7 | +20% |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 19 | $4,975 | −$5 | -0% |
| Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 | Apr 17 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 17 | $138 | +$62 | +45% |
| Hornets vs. Knicks | Apr 17 | $860 | +$140 | +16% |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 11 | $6,106 | −$6 | -0% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 11 | $6,112 | −$6 | -0% |
| Spread: Celtics (-16.5) | Apr 11 | $30 | +$30 | +100% |
| Spread: Suns (-2.5) | Apr 11 | $80 | +$80 | +100% |
| Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 10 | $5,959 | −$6 | -0% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 10 | $5,884 | −$6 | -0% |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 10 | $5,912 | −$6 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 10 | $5,892 | −$6 | -0% |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Apr 10 | $14 | +$6 | +40% |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Apr 08 | $10 | +$9 | +90% |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | Apr 08 | $107 | +$51 | +48% |
| Timberwolves vs. Pacers | Apr 08 | $1,720 | +$280 | +16% |
| Spread: Thunder (-17.5) | Apr 07 | $140 | +$1 | +0% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) | Apr 07 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Apr 07 | $3,040 | +$960 | +32% |
| Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 | Apr 06 | $2,861 | +$1,852 | +65% |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | Apr 04 | $638 | −$629 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Nuggets | Apr 04 | $1,064 | −$1,064 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Mavericks | Apr 04 | $350 | +$146 | +42% |
| Timberwolves vs. 76ers | Apr 04 | $456 | +$334 | +73% |
| Pacers vs. Bulls | Apr 01 | $1,190 | −$1,178 | -99% |
| Spread: Celtics (-5.5) | Apr 01 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | Mar 31 | $469 | −$464 | -99% |
| Spread: Celtics (-1.5) | Mar 31 | $301 | +$214 | +71% |
| Celtics vs. Hawks | Mar 30 | $286 | −$8 | -3% |
| Clippers vs. Bucks | Mar 30 | $264 | +$36 | +14% |
| Spread: Celtics (-1.5) | Mar 29 | $132 | −$132 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Hornets | Mar 28 | $204 | −$204 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Cavaliers | Mar 28 | $402 | +$207 | +52% |
| Pelicans vs. Pistons | Mar 27 | $260 | +$140 | +54% |
| Raptors vs. Clippers | Mar 26 | $161 | +$99 | +61% |
| Pelicans vs. Knicks | Mar 25 | $39 | +$12 | +32% |