Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x203d…2b2c other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,636 (-2%) realized −$1,820 · open −$816
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%32W / 68L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,389per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1,032est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$6,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,373
sports 40% −$5,918
crypto 2% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -47.3% -52.3% 22% 22% -62.8%
≤30d 24 -49.5% -54.3% 21% 21% -65.0%
≤90d 87 -26.5% -33.5% 26% 26% -24.6%
all 100 -11.4% -19.8% 32% 31% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 31% -12.1%
10% -27.5% 29% -20.5%
15% -34.5% 29% -28.2%
20% -40.9% 28% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,994) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,444 vs −$1,207 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$6,368
Realized−$1,820
Unrealized−$816
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$1,032
Open positions5
Markets (closed)100 / 106
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1,389
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 52¢ 57¢ $2,941 $3,211 +$270 (+9%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,300 $1,241 −$59 (-5%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Qatar 42¢ 36¢ $943 $799 −$144 (-15%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 8¢ $1,000 $127 −$873 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $981 −$957 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,953 −$3,873 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,074 −$1,800 -59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,030 −$60 -3%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,155 +114%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $205 +$26 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $995 −$969 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,037 −$2,008 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,336 +$698 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $932 +$405 +43%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $990 +$3,408 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,879 −$1,850 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $991 −$966 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $412 −$405 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1,036 −$623 -60%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4,915 −$4,857 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,997 −$1,951 -98%
Will Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? May 17 $4,077 −$3,996 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $995 +$1,044 +105%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $976 +$1,066 +109%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,005 −$983 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $995 −$978 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,006 −$985 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,001 −$981 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $1,993 −$1,943 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $1,997 −$1,962 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 09 $1,957 −$1,916 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 09 $2,041 −$2,000 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 07 $2,255 −$2,200 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 07 $2,044 −$2,000 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $1,994 +$6,308 +316%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $1,993 −$1,945 -98%
Will US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 05 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,177 −$1,171 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,918 −$1,870 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 04 $100 +$17 +17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4,468 +$4,843 +108%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2,986 +$9,558 +320%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2,037 −$2,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 01 $818 +$849 +104%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $3,001 +$6,787 +226%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $3,061 −$3,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 11m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2,975 12m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $959 16m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,012 41m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,335 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $263 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3,935 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,970 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,030 26h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2,172 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,175 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 17¢ $231 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 27h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,022 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $989 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $8 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $2,029 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,336 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $1,337 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $932 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,368.18 · official $6,361.73 (match) · 210 history records