Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:34:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2042…6fe1 world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$4
other 24% −$8
politics 21% −$5
sports 12% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 71 +2.0% -7.7% 35% 6% -9.5%
all 79 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 53
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage531d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $81 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $109 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -68%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $72 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $41 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $80 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $26 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $77 +$4 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $72 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $74 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $117 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3 $0 -10%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $91 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $39 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $37 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $0.00 · 343 history records