Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2043…f1f4 crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$152 (+0%) realized +$157 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%122W / 6L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$774per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$55
other 33% +$95
economics 6% −$4
sports 3% $0
politics 3% −$3
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 128 +0.3% -9.2% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,464) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.92 per $1 lost it wins $16.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$2,588
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses122 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)128 / 133
History coverage156d
Avg bet$774
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,565 $1,565 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $600 $600 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $0 June 22-28? No 100¢ 99¢ $277 $275 −$2 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 22-28? No 100¢ 97¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-3%)
Will Solana reach $90 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $10 on June 16? Jun 16 $175 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? Jun 15 $306 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 June 8-14? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2,055 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 10 $1,034 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 10 $1,464 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $529 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 26 $1,964 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $2,491 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $2,577 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $2,541 +$36 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 12 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 12 $260 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 8? May 12 $1,997 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on April 6? Apr 15 $2,102 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 1? Apr 05 $432 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $2,532 +$3 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on March 30? Mar 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $993 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 23-29? Mar 30 $1,536 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on March 24? Mar 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on March 24? Mar 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on March 24? Mar 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 24? Mar 28 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on March 23? Mar 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 March 16-22? Mar 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 March 16-22? Mar 24 $399 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 22? Mar 24 $799 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $1,067 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 22? Mar 23 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on March 21? Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 21? Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 21? Mar 22 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on March 20? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 20? Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 20 $2,296 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 9-15? Mar 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on March 17? Mar 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 16? Mar 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 15? Mar 20 $252 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 15? Mar 20 $283 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on March 15? Mar 20 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 20 $1,326 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 16 $2,513 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,560 1h
Will Solana dip to $0 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $277 1h
Will Solana reach $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Solana reach $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 8d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 9d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,053 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $175 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $306 10d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 13d
Will Solana reach $130 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $54 13d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,464 28d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,691 39d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $529 39d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 40d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,490 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 40d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,577 41d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,588.44 · official $2,589.14 (match) · 392 history records