Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
20 0x2043…355f other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,800 (+4%) realized +$2,800 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%132W / 8L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$537per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$3,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days+$17
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$96
finance 21% +$32
tech 8% +$20
politics 8% +$8
sports 5% +$2,635
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 18 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 97 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.4%
all 140 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 3% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -6.2%
10% -18.4% 2% -15.2%
15% -26.3% 2% -23.4%
20% -33.5% 1% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$45 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.89 per $1 lost it wins $9.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$3,530
Realized+$2,800
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses132 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)140 / 148
History coverage223d
Avg bet$537
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,001 +$1 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $969 $968 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $499 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $480 $480 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $348 $347 −$1 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? Jun 28 $1,360 +$5 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 22 above $110? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 22 above $120? Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? Jun 25 $310 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $210 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $800 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,027 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $3,500 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $3,500 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 15 $350 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 15 $534 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $2,313 +$5 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $303 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 25 above $195? May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 25 above $190? May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $1,200 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $2,167 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 27 $1,200 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? May 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $265? May 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $260? May 24 $73 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$260 on the final day of trading of the w May 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $255-$260 on the final day of trading of t May 24 $94 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $255? May 24 $222 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $318 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 18 2026? May 24 $624 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 18 2026? May 24 $756 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $382 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $223 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $302 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $525 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $1,791 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $900 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,500 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $280 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $60? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $70? May 16 $204 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $110? May 16 $304 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $969 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 100¢ $499 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY No 100¢ $348 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 100¢ $79 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 100¢ $11 16h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 100¢ $14 18h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? SELL No 100¢ $847 25h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL No 100¢ $230 26h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? SELL No 100¢ $518 28h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,360 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? SELL No 100¢ $311 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 4d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,529.95 · official $3,529.95 (match) · 432 history records