Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2047…0166 crypto 393 markets active 2d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$354 (-11%) realized −$362 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%202W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$227
other 7% −$13
world 5% −$25
culture 3% +$3
tech 3% −$33
politics 3% +$12
sports 3% −$32
economics 2% −$39
weather 0% −$4
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +10.8% +0.3% 67% 59% -5.8%
≤30d 51 +10.8% +0.3% 67% 59% -5.8%
≤90d 99 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 51% -10.4%
all 390 -9.1% -17.8% 52% 48% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 48% -20.2%
10% -25.6% 42% -27.8%
15% -32.8% 33% -34.8%
20% -39.4% 23% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$362
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses202 / 188
Open positions3
Markets (closed)390 / 393
History coverage158d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 60¢ 96¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$14 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.46 · official $63.46 (match) · 1122 history records