Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x204c…1e26 other 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12,097 (-26%) realized −$12,579 · open +$482
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%80W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$256
14 days−$13,999
30 days−$13,633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$12,450
other 18% −$1,003
sports 6% −$74
crypto 3% +$375
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 43% -17.0%
≤30d 66 -24.3% -31.5% 39% 35% -41.8%
≤90d 188 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 39% -39.7%
all 188 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 39% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 39% -39.7%
10% -33.9% 32% -45.4%
15% -40.3% 27% -50.7%
20% -46.1% 24% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$155 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$5,006
Realized−$12,579
Unrealized+$482
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses80 / 108
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions16
Markets (closed)188 / 205
History coverage68d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $1,255 $1,802 +$548 (+44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $999 $1,363 +$364 (+36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1,027 $675 −$352 (-34%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 31¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $238 $236 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $240 $159 −$81 (-34%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $103 $119 +$16 (+16%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $60 $99 +$39 (+65%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $59 $66 +$6 (+11%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $70 $51 −$19 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $39 $29 −$10 (-25%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 31¢ $13 $25 +$11 (+85%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$30 +49%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $56 −$10 -18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $161 +$39 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$31 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $116 −$115 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$86 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $44 −$30 -69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $112 +$122 +109%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$232 +115%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $228 +$82 +36%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$14 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $206 −$50 -24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $709 −$700 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$11 +122%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $137 −$2 -2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $329 +$354 +108%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -88%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $161 +$35 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $123 +$36 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $80 +$52 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $138 +$76 +55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $63 −$50 -79%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 +$6 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $44 −$21 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $155 −$116 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 4m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 28¢ $46 56m
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 33¢ $56 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $200 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 80¢ $161 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 14h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $22 28h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 31h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 31h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 31h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 31h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 31h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,006.40 · official $5,005.05 (match) · 1011 history records