Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x204e…8d08 sports 278 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48,357 (+2%) realized +$48,284 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%264W / 23L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$8,403per market
Trades / day107.1pace
Fees−$593est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$19,845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$707
7 days+$2,659
14 days+$3,911
30 days+$30,820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$32,185
other 26% −$1,171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -4.5% -13.6% 81% 5% -9.2%
≤30d 287 +8.4% -2.0% 92% 3% -8.5%
≤90d 287 +8.4% -2.0% 92% 3% -8.5%
all 287 +8.4% -2.0% 92% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 3% -8.5%
10% -11.3% 1% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -19.9% 1% -25.3%
20% -27.8% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$9,990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$602 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$19,845
Realized+$48,284
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses264 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$593
Open positions3
Markets (closed)287 / 278
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$8,403
Trades / day107.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 100¢ 100¢ $12,986 $12,994 +$8 (+0%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 99¢ 100¢ $4,950 $4,998 +$48 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ 100¢ $1,836 $1,854 +$18 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -103%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20,577 +$31 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $17,982 −$1 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23,377 +$23 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $18,055 +$18 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,445 +$55 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $35,897 +$103 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26,374 +$26 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11,819 −$357 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,683 +$17 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10,311 +$10 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41,660 +$40 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $186 +$2 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,970 +$30 +1%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $29,970 +$30 +0%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $7,992 +$8 +0%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,517 +$23 +1%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,877 +$128 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8,562 +$588 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $7,435 +$53 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $19,960 +$64 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17,782 +$18 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4,509 +$491 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7,805 +$79 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $31,758 +$53 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,970 +$30 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $19,979 +$21 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,960 +$40 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,970 +$30 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,978 +$22 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$8 +386%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39,760 +$38 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34,501 +$51 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,937 +$5 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,584 −$107 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,484 +$2 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $28,256 +$28 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $11 +$4 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 100¢ $12,986 25m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $12,987 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $4,951 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $4,995 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $395 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $10 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $4,422 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $49 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $62 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $11 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $20 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $571 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $31 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $827 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $224 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $389 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $174 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $5 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $425 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $131 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $10,237 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $175 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $49 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $30 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $401 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $104 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $109 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $27 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $161 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $46 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,844.79 · official $19,844.79 (match) · 3500 history records