Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x204f…ba2c sports 1033 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1060 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,763 (+80%) realized +$5,797 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +113% what you keep after slip
Net edge+113%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate81%678W / 158L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1059.7pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$614
other 45% +$164
world 1% +$2
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1060 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+149.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 836 +176.2% +149.9% 81% 59% +9.4%
≤30d 836 +176.2% +149.9% 81% 59% +9.4%
≤90d 836 +176.2% +149.9% 81% 59% +9.4%
all 836 +176.2% +149.9% 81% 59% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1059.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +149.9% 59% +9.4%
10% ← realistic here +126.0% 49% -1.1%
15% +104.1% 44% -10.6%
20% +84.1% 40% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +176% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +126% → late +226% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.41 per $1 lost it wins $6.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,736
Realized+$5,797
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses678 / 158
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions244
Markets (closed)836 / 1033
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1059.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 244 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? No 96¢ 95¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: Panama 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 97¢ 96¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) New Zealand 95¢ 94¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals No 62¢ 69¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+12%)
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Yes 43¢ $3 $19 +$16 (+542%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Under 95¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? No 98¢ 96¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 3 Ghana? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 2 Ghana? No 95¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 2 Ghana? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Uzbekistan? No 96¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 96¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? No 96¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Portugal? No 96¢ 97¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: DR Congo (-3.5) Uzbekistan 96¢ 96¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 95¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Ghana? No 94¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 6.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-3.5) Norway 94¢ 93¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 207 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jones vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 26 $16 −$1 -5%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 26 $6 +$6 +100%
Boitan vs. Yevseyev: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
CA Huracán vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 +$2 +59%
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Spread: CD La Serena (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 +$1 +42%
Madrid: Zsombor Piros vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 26 $2 +$2 +89%
Rainbow Six Siege: KINOTROPE gaming vs CAG Osaka - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $0 +$3 +2210%
Hugo Ekitike: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 26 $2 +$1 +54%
Derrick Jones Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 +$1 +75%
Set 1 Winner: Tormo vs Korpatsch Jun 26 $1 +$1 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 +$1 +96%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-04-12? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +117%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs ODDIK Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $2 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Jun 26 $1 +$1 +170%
Yibing Wu vs. Stefan Dostanic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 +$1 +178%
UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 26 $1 +$5 +420%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BIG - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $0 +$1 +203%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Jun 26 $1 +$3 +383%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $0 +$1 +734%
Will CA Grau win on 2026-04-22? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +2400%
Quinn vs. Royer: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $0 +$2 +416%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 26 $0 +$1 +363%
Yunus Akgün: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 +$2 +271%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
ITF Zhengzhou: Jiaqi Wang vs Daria Khomutsianskaya Jun 26 $0 +$4 +1112%
Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs WW Team (+1.5) Jun 26 $0 +$13 +6071%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +10%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Jun 26 $0 +$1 +997%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +27%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $0 +$13 +6520%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $1 +$1 +84%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 +$1 +84%
Spread: Londrina EC (-2.5) Jun 26 $1 +$1 +126%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $1 +$1 +185%
Spread: Criciúma EC (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 +$3 +349%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 26 $1 +$1 +132%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +356%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 26 $0 +$1 +374%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Gr Jun 26 $1 +$3 +535%
ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs William Jansen Jun 26 $0 +$8 +3047%
ITF Sapporo: Mutsumi Uemura vs Rira Kosaka Jun 26 $0 +$2 +775%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 26 $0 +$2 +858%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 26 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 26 $0 +$1 +530%
Set 1 Winner: Izquierdo vs Kwon Jun 26 $1 $0 +57%
Honor of Kings: JD Gaming vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 26 $1 +$2 +450%
ITF Bakio: Lucas Poullain vs Paul Inchauspe Jun 26 $0 +$1 +195%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $0 $0 +108%
Klugman vs. Valentova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $0 +$1 +342%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 30¢ $4 2m
Michael Olise: 2+ goals SELL No 96¢ $14 4m
Sandro Kopp vs. Petr Nesterov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 41¢ $4 7m
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Evictix 30¢ $1 17m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Team to Take First Corner BUY Saudi Arabia 41¢ $6 21m
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? SELL Yes $0 26m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 31m
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu SELL Douyu Gaming 18¢ $1 40m
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL LOS 38¢ $8 47m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $2 49m
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL No 69¢ $10 51m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $7 54m
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand SELL Yes 41¢ $0 59m
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand SELL Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand SELL Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots BUY No 30¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $8 1h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand SELL Yes 41¢ $11 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Andreozzi/Guina SELL Andreozzi/Guinard 70¢ $3 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Andreozzi/Guina SELL Andreozzi/Guinard 70¢ $4 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Andreozzi/Guina SELL Andreozzi/Guinard 70¢ $4 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots SELL No 51¢ $8 1h
Norway vs. France: Team to Take First Corner SELL Norway 38¢ $6 1h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P SELL Yes 37¢ $3 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY LOS 34¢ $2 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY LOS 34¢ $3 1h
Bergs vs. Samuel: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 47¢ $2 1h
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu SELL Douyu Gaming 21¢ $2 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY No 30¢ $4 1h
Honor of Kings: Kuaishou Gaming vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leagu BUY Douyu Gaming $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,735.82 · official $1,628.94 · 3500 history records