Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2051…b02c world 34 markets active 3h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$10
other 20% +$1
crypto 8% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 14 -1.9% -11.3% 43% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 14 -1.9% -11.3% 43% 0% -11.4%
all 34 -1.9% -11.2% 59% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 3% -19.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage463d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 −$2 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $25 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $66 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $38 −$7 -19%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 23 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $13 $0 -2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $20 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $16 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $14 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $21 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $18 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $12 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records