trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -75.0% | -77.4% | 20% | 20% | -76.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -75.0% | -77.4% | 20% | 20% | -76.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -79.2% | -81.2% | 17% | 17% | -79.1% |
| all | 33 | -37.8% | -43.8% | 21% | 12% | -32.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.8% | 12% | -32.0% |
| 10% | -49.1% | 12% | -38.5% |
| 15% | -54.1% | 3% | -44.5% |
| 20% | -58.6% | 3% | -49.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $9 | $8 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $8 | $7 | −$1 (-11%) |
| Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $8 | $7 | −$1 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $20 | +$5 | +25% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $18 | −$17 | -97% |
| Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? | Jun 22 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Mar 31 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | Feb 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? | Jan 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Jan 30 | $10 | +$5 | +52% |
| Wizards vs. Kings | Jan 19 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Wizards vs. Nuggets | Jan 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Pistons | Jan 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Spurs | Jan 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Warriors | Jan 16 | $2 | +$1 | +34% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil | Jan 15 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? | Jul 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? | Jul 12 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin above $108,000 on July 14? | Jul 12 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? | Feb 28 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Jan 14 | $24 | −$1 | -2% |
| SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025? | Jan 14 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 14 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Lee Zeldin confirmed as Administrator of the EPA? | Jan 01 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Dec 30 | $22 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | Dec 03 | $24 | −$2 | -7% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Dec 03 | $24 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? | Nov 16 | $22 | +$2 | +10% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 11 | $37 | +$11 | +29% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Nov 04 | $13 | $0 | -1% |