Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2053…a9a6
other · 95 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage448d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 2 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $108 $107 −$1 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 59¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $114 +$5 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $103 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $314 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $275 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $204 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $102 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $169 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $195 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $200 +$12 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $109 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $168 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $98 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $97 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $197 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $185 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $102 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $1,149 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,141 +$7 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $1,233 −$8 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $121 −$4 -4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2,209 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 +19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $86 +$4 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1,149 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $119 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $1,148 +$2 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Apr 01 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Mar 31 $19 −$8 -44%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 20 $2 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$7
other 35% −$6
politics 19% −$6
sports 9% +$12
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $108 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $76 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $31 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $1 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $25 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $83 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $101 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $114 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $79 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $10 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $13 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $103 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $114 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $114 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $78 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $114 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $114 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $100 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $100 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $27 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 29 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 43 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 2% -9.5%
all 93 -2.9% -12.2% 40% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 1% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.67 · official $106.61 (match) · 339 history records