Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

20 0x2055…2a7a other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$77 (-8%) realized −$67 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%12W / 20L

Drawdown92%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$44

7 days+$7

14 days+$26

30 days+$26

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-33.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	31	-29.0%	-35.8%	35%	35%	-8.7%
≤30d	32	-26.6%	-33.6%	38%	38%	-6.7%
≤90d	32	-26.6%	-33.6%	38%	38%	-6.7%
all	32	-26.6%	-33.6%	38%	38%	-6.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.6%	38%	-6.7%
10%	-40.0%	38%	-15.7%
15%	-45.8%	38%	-23.8%
20%	-51.1%	25%	-31.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$59

Realized−$67

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses12 / 20

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)32 / 36

History coverage8d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown92%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 32 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	No	54¢	54¢	$40	$39	−$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	21¢	22¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 26	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$20	−$20	-100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$51	+$53	+105%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$51	+$31	+62%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$50	+$23	+46%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 25	$20	+$26	+128%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	+$41	+81%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 24	$51	−$37	-73%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	Jun 24	$20	+$23	+114%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$51	+$25	+50%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 24	$3	−$3	-100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 24	$19	−$19	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$51	+$39	+78%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$20	+$17	+86%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$26	+$61	+237%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 23	$9	−$9	-100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$50	+$21	+41%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$10	−$6	-55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$40	+$19	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	2m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	2m
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Under	100¢	$104	33m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$82	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	54¢	$40	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	48¢	$51	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	2h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Under	100¢	$46	3h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	43¢	$20	4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	68¢	$50	4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	97¢	$92	24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	SELL Morocco	14¢	$14	28h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	49¢	$51	29h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina	46¢	$20	32h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	58¢	$51	32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$76	47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	SELL Panama	99¢	$90	2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	BUY Panama	55¢	$51	2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	53¢	$20	2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	12¢	$10	2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$86	2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	29¢	$26	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.30 · official $62.91 · 68 history records