Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2057…3405 crypto 9 markets active 161d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3493 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$191,968 (+554%) realized +$191,968 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,847per market
Trades / day3493.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$77,951
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3493 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 17 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 17 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 26 -22.9% -30.2% 19% 19% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3493.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 19% -15.1%
10% -36.9% 19% -23.2%
15% ← realistic here -43.0% 19% -30.6%
20% -48.6% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$8,347) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +54% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
388.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16,584 vs −$4,300 · ×3.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191,968
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 9
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$3,847
Trades / day3493.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $3,609 −$3,609 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $8,512 −$8,512 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $2,867 −$2,867 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $6,012 −$6,012 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $2,961 −$2,961 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $8,347 −$8,347 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $3,520 −$3,520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $990 −$990 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $13,883 −$13,883 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $541 −$541 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $3,098 −$3,098 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $8,886 −$8,886 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $226 −$226 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $11,941 −$11,941 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $8,825 −$8,825 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 19 $8,415 +$24,651 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 19 $2,507 +$12,622 +504%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 19 $5,152 +$5,952 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 19 $7,095 +$14,369 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 19 $1,655 −$1,654 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 19 $2,133 −$2,132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 19 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 19 $6,483 +$25,329 +391%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $43 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $19 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $16 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $33 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records