Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x2057…e766 other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%51W / 27L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$27
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$37
politics 8% −$20
sports 8% +$20
tech 7% −$2
world 6% −$3
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.7% -4.4% 66% 62% +3.9%
≤30d 49 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 65% +4.6%
≤90d 49 +10.2% -0.3% 67% 65% +4.6%
all 78 +7.5% -2.7% 65% 59% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 59% -4.3%
10% -12.0% 41% -13.5%
15% -20.5% 33% -21.8%
20% -28.3% 24% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses51 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 82
History coverage226d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$1 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$5 +89%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 +$3 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$3 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$6 +104%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Germany vs. P BUY 34¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Germany vs. P BUY 34¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 95¢ $17 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.93 · official $22.81 · 202 history records