Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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20 0x2058…bfd1 crypto 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%88W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$78
14 days+$60
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 56% -5.5%
≤30d 146 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 52% -7.1%
≤90d 177 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 46% -10.5%
all 177 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 46% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 46% -10.5%
10% -18.0% 43% -19.1%
15% -25.9% 33% -26.9%
20% -33.2% 25% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses88 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage66d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 78¢ 100¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 74¢ 58¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$9 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$27 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$23 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$33 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.67 · official $19.25 (match) · 682 history records