Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
20 0x2058…72b1 sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%31W / 60L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$28
other 20% −$21
world 6% −$104
sports 4% +$49
crypto 2% +$19
economics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -46.0% -51.2% 0% 0% -55.9%
≤30d 12 -8.5% -17.2% 8% 8% -13.3%
≤90d 52 -3.7% -12.9% 17% 13% -10.7%
all 91 +7.3% -2.9% 34% 30% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 30% -9.9%
10% -12.2% 30% -18.5%
15% -20.7% 27% -26.4%
20% -28.5% 23% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage216d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $120 −$53 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$51 -94%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $508 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $515 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 22 $46 +$17 +38%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $91 −$4 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $51 −$6 -12%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $250 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $260 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $460 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $450 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $120 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 25 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $320 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $430 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $130 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $330 −$1 -0%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 19 $10 +$8 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $44 −$22 -50%
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Apr 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Apr 05 $9 +$4 +49%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 05 $7 +$8 +104%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $54 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $54 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $63 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $549 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $550 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $12 21d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 21d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $18 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $88 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $40 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $5 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $50 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $150 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $137 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $12 24d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 24d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $18 24d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $12 24d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 376 history records