Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:34:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2059…0396 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$82 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days−$412
14 days−$426
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$343
other 4% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +15.5% +4.5% 43% 43% -31.8%
≤30d 49 +10.8% +0.2% 41% 41% -32.4%
≤90d 49 +10.8% +0.2% 41% 41% -32.4%
all 49 +10.8% +0.2% 41% 41% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 41% -32.4%
10% -9.4% 39% -38.9%
15% -18.1% 31% -44.8%
20% -26.1% 20% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage7d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 0¢ 60¢ $0 $43 +$43 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $107 +$63 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $170 +$85 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $260 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $205 +$112 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $84 −$30 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +114%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $88 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $82 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $67 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $74 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $50 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $205 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $170 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $207 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $266 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.61 · official $0.40 · 94 history records