Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2059…f3ad sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$406 (-6%) realized −$391 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$470per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,401
7 days−$281
14 days−$307
30 days−$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,930
sports 47% −$2,368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 38% -14.1%
≤30d 14 -5.6% -14.6% 43% 43% -15.3%
≤90d 14 -5.6% -14.6% 43% 43% -15.3%
all 14 -5.6% -14.6% 43% 43% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 43% -15.3%
10% -22.7% 43% -23.4%
15% -30.2% 36% -30.8%
20% -37.0% 29% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$662 vs −$549 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$391
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage23d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $365 $350 −$15 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,056 +$3,200 +303%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $442 −$442 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $242 −$236 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,182 −$1,170 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $483 +$544 +113%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu Jun 05 $143 −$27 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $174 −$172 -99%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional end in a draw? Jun 01 $185 +$70 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $163 −$161 -99%
Will Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC end in a dr May 28 $304 +$77 +25%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $110 +$71 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $374 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $6 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $148 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $157 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $811 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $247 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $247 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $216 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $346 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $39 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $14 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $24 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $1 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $0 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $5 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $1 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $5 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $47 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $297 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $242 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1,182 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $317 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $14 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $418 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $316 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.54 · official $349.54 (match) · 56 history records