Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x205a…788b sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-23%) realized −$95 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$270
sports 37% −$244
other 26% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -52.9% -57.4% 17% 17% -20.8%
≤30d 6 -52.9% -57.4% 17% 17% -20.8%
≤90d 6 -52.9% -57.4% 17% 17% -20.8%
all 6 -52.9% -57.4% 17% 17% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 17% -20.8%
10% -61.5% 17% -28.4%
15% -65.2% 17% -35.3%
20% -68.6% 17% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$96 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto Ana Candiotto 19¢ 16¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Joaquin Aguilar 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $216 +$395 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$100 -96%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $234 −$228 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Asuncion: Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso vs Ana Candiotto BUY Ana Candiotto 19¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 54m
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Iraq 48¢ $100 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 18¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $234 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.98 · official $83.98 (match) · 12 history records