Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
20 0x205b…8edf world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,758 (+40%) realized +$15,586 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$770per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$410
7 days+$410
14 days+$9,112
30 days+$13,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$11,144
other 26% −$10
crypto 15% +$3,916
politics 10% +$873
economics 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.8% -2.4% 100% 0% -2.4%
≤30d 31 +19.4% +8.0% 55% 39% +33.7%
≤90d 43 +18.7% +7.4% 53% 37% +32.3%
all 43 +18.7% +7.4% 53% 37% +32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 37% +32.3%
10% -2.9% 26% +19.6%
15% -12.3% 23% +8.1%
20% -20.9% 21% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$915) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$901 vs −$247 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$3,380
Realized+$15,586
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)43 / 51
History coverage62d
Avg bet$770
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1,275 $1,344 +$68 (+5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $386 $524 +$137 (+36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $475 $478 +$3 (+1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 88¢ $316 $335 +$19 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $343 $301 −$43 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $287 $298 +$11 (+4%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $39 $11 −$28 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $5,243 +$410 +8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $415 −$199 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,954 +$10,045 +203%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $62 −$27 -43%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $449 +$72 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $666 −$666 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $391 +$704 +180%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $112 +$11 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $65 +$273 +419%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $146 +$769 +525%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $475 −$421 -88%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $3,033 +$704 +23%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $226 +$12 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $72 +$12 +17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $536 −$431 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $432 −$432 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 12 $252 −$196 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,523 −$1,275 -51%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $144 +$26 +18%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $327 −$23 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $675 +$9 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,701 +$2,673 +99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,602 +$1,240 +48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $1,140 +$729 +64%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $168 +$143 +85%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 27 $1,207 +$31 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $915 −$438 -48%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $69 +$6 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 11 $905 +$170 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $251 +$42 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $26 −$13 -49%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 05 $237 −$32 -13%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $35 +$25 +73%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $997 +$2,589 +260%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $953 −$507 -53%
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 30 $413 +$26 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $155 −$1 -1%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $39 −$6 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $299 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $54 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $110 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $39 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $108 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $136 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $39 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $53 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $191 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $443 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $277 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $648 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 39¢ $216 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,379.79 · official $3,379.88 (match) · 396 history records