Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x205d…21f0 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$16 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$9
other 29% −$1
culture 7% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +6.3% -3.8% 64% 14% -7.2%
≤90d 24 +4.0% -5.9% 58% 8% -7.9%
all 48 +1.9% -7.8% 35% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 4% -8.7%
10% -16.7% 2% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.28 per $1 lost it wins $8.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage268d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 48¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $7 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $26 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $4 +$3 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $44 +$6 +13%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $42 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $61 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $19 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 29 $4 $0 -3%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $74 $0 -0%
Washington vs. UCLA Nov 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $22 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 02 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 30 $26 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $54 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $36 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $12 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.12 · official $45.59 (match) · 205 history records