Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
20 0x205d…3ab2 sports 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$31 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%114W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$53
14 days+$48
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$30
other 48% +$5
crypto 2% −$49
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +19.0% +7.7% 42% 42% -2.2%
≤30d 151 +12.8% +2.1% 45% 44% -12.8%
≤90d 236 +5.8% -4.3% 48% 47% -10.5%
all 236 +5.8% -4.3% 48% 47% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 47% -10.5%
10% -13.5% 44% -19.1%
15% -21.8% 40% -26.9%
20% -29.5% 34% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses114 / 122
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)236 / 241
History coverage68d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 38¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 12¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-77%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 +$5 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +188%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 +$7 +712%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 +$13 +1290%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 +$5 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 +$7 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 +$8 +114%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$16 +1577%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 21h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $5 46h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.76 · official $8.86 · 373 history records