trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 50% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 36% | 0% | -11.1% |
| all | 25 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 64% | 0% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.8% | 0% | -10.7% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 0% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 50¢ | 46¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $21 | $0 | +2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 25 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 25 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $49 | −$3 | -6% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 24 | $65 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 20 | $34 | $0 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 19 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 18 | $36 | −$3 | -9% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 18 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 26 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? | Apr 28 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 26 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? | Apr 25 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 25 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Broncos? | Apr 24 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25? | Apr 24 | $6 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? | Apr 23 | $6 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | Apr 21 | $6 | $0 | +0% |