Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x205f…0189 sports 385 markets active 2d ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,856 (-4%) realized −$1,853 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%203W / 179L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$89
14 days−$157
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$528
politics 11% +$1,152
other 9% −$2,817
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.9% -26.6% 47% 47% -28.8%
≤30d 20 -22.9% -30.3% 45% 45% -38.8%
≤90d 20 -22.9% -30.3% 45% 45% -38.8%
all 382 -9.9% -18.5% 53% 49% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 49% -13.3%
10% -26.3% 45% -21.6%
15% -33.4% 35% -29.2%
20% -39.9% 29% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$92 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$1,853
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses203 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)382 / 385
History coverage693d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $51 $42 −$9 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $19 +$7 +36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$12 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $21 +$23 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $21 +$25 +119%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 +$5 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $21 +$22 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$14 +46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $31 +$14 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 −$31 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $69 −$68 -99%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $169 +$76 +45%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 24 $69 −$14 -21%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Dec 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Panthers vs. Stars Dec 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Nets vs. Mavericks Dec 13 $191 +$57 +30%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 12 $260 −$260 -100%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Dec 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Dec 11 $730 −$175 -24%
Senators vs. Blue Jackets Dec 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Capitals Dec 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Dec 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Sabres vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Dec 11 $69 +$56 +82%
Ducks vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Dec 11 $69 +$59 +85%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Dec 11 $69 +$69 +100%
Bruins vs. Blues Dec 11 $130 +$153 +117%
Panthers vs. Utah Dec 11 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Dec 10 $130 −$130 -100%
Stars vs. Jets Dec 10 $69 −$69 -100%
Wild vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5 Dec 09 $69 +$61 +89%
Kings vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Dec 09 $69 +$72 +104%
Kings vs. Utah Dec 09 $138 +$138 +100%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Dec 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Dec 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Jalen Hurts: 2+ Touchdowns Dec 09 $69 −$69 -100%
Red Wings vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5 Dec 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 08 $400 +$146 +36%
Spread: Bills (-6.5) Dec 08 $20 +$18 +89%
Spread: Ravens (-7.5) Dec 07 $138 +$90 +65%
Seahawks vs. Falcons Dec 07 $70 +$24 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $26 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $19 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $21 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 41¢ $21 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $21 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 36¢ $21 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $21 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $21 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $21 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $21 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $21 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $21 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $21 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $21 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $31 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 41¢ $21 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $31 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $31 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $69 7d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Seahawks 100¢ $245 127d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 69¢ $169 128d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Djokovic $50 135d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? SELL No 10¢ $55 143d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY No 13¢ $69 143d
Chargers vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 71¢ $110 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.14 · official $98.14 (match) · 882 history records