Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x205f…895c crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-16%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%33W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 53% -24.5%
≤30d 55 -13.9% -22.1% 58% 53% -24.5%
≤90d 56 -13.3% -21.6% 59% 54% -24.2%
all 56 -13.3% -21.6% 59% 54% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 54% -24.2%
10% -29.1% 38% -31.4%
15% -36.0% 32% -38.0%
20% -42.2% 27% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses33 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records