Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
20 0x2062…4a13 weather 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% +$1
crypto 28% $0
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage111d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 24? May 23 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 8? Apr 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on April 3? Apr 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 01 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on Marc Mar 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.43 · official $147.43 (match) · 17 history records