Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x2063…e65d sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$152
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$109
other 26% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -7.2% -16.0% 47% 47% +9.1%
≤30d 20 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 45% -4.0%
≤90d 20 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 45% -4.0%
all 20 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 45% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 45% -4.0%
10% -22.0% 45% -13.2%
15% -29.5% 40% -21.5%
20% -36.4% 25% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$42 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage9d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $81 +$26 +32%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$101 +197%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$41 +134%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$81 +158%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $58 −$57 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$75 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 +$36 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $157 −$156 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 75¢ $81 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 30¢ $20 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $8 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $58 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $61 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $26 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $91 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $157 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $80 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records