Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x206c…2b8d sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 938d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,436 (-12%) realized −$3,640 · open +$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%55W / 70L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$384est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,863
7 days−$1,547
14 days−$3,139
30 days−$3,626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$3,289
other 3% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -26.7% -33.7% 41% 41% -25.9%
≤30d 125 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 44% -21.8%
≤90d 125 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 44% -21.8%
all 125 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 44% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 44% -21.8%
10% -27.7% 40% -29.3%
15% -34.7% 37% -36.2%
20% -41.1% 26% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$173 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

938d coverage
Net worth$2,619
Realized−$3,640
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses55 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$384
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 129
History coverage938d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 61¢ 74¢ $1,299 $1,587 +$288 (+22%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier G2 Minnesota 60¢ 60¢ $544 $540 −$5 (-1%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner G2 Minnesota 55¢ 55¢ $496 $492 −$5 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $121 +$133 +109%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $258 +$186 +72%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $103 −$99 -96%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $285 +$101 +36%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 20 $144 −$139 -96%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 20 $134 −$128 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $694 −$670 -96%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $507 −$492 -97%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $848 +$437 +52%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,023 −$1,004 -98%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $258 −$189 -73%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 19 $218 −$212 -97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $170 +$276 +162%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $571 +$579 +102%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $265 +$285 +108%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 16 $43 +$21 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $341 +$132 +39%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $166 −$161 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $151 −$147 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $143 −$139 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $526 −$510 -97%
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $460 −$442 -96%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $582 +$513 +88%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $335 +$206 +61%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 14 $35 −$34 -95%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $117 +$103 +88%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $371 −$360 -97%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $144 −$142 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $404 −$395 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $291 −$282 -97%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Team Heretics Academy (+1.5) Jun 13 $38 +$16 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$369 +336%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $181 +$251 +138%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $30 +$23 +76%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $122 +$388 +317%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $152 −$149 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $271 −$266 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $253 −$246 -97%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 −$27 -95%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$32 +40%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $238 +$227 +96%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $59 +$109 +184%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $68 −$66 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $851 +$367 +43%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $166 −$163 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $1,330 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 25¢ $2 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $78 4h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner SELL G2 Minnesota 54¢ $6 5h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 55¢ $510 5h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL G2 Minnesota 59¢ $6 5h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 60¢ $557 5h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 47¢ $121 5h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua SELL ECHO 31¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY ECHO 32¢ $103 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 56¢ $3 8h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $258 8h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As SELL Carstensz 32¢ $3 20h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 33¢ $144 20h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) SELL VP.Prodigy 12¢ $3 20h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY VP.Prodigy 13¢ $134 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 38¢ $12 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $694 22h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 50¢ $7 22h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $507 22h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,277 23h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner SELL Los Angeles Thieves 65¢ $2 24h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 73¢ $285 24h
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner SELL Miami Heretics 61¢ $9 29h
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner BUY Miami Heretics 66¢ $1,023 29h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 63¢ $8 30h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $848 30h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European SELL NAVI Junior 17¢ $58 45h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) SELL SHISHKA 44¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,618.74 · official $2,618.74 (match) · 316 history records