Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x206f…9e8b sports 13 markets active 3d ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$73 (+21%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$140
economics 12% −$41
other 7% −$23
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +101.4% +82.2% 60% 60% +83.9%
≤30d 6 +102.0% +82.8% 67% 67% +85.0%
≤90d 9 +34.7% +21.8% 44% 44% +30.8%
all 13 +3.6% -6.2% 38% 38% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 38% +9.1%
10% -15.2% 38% -1.4%
15% -23.4% 31% -10.9%
20% -30.9% 31% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$18 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage313d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $119 +$124 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Mar 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $52 +$18 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $50 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $10 5d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $243 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $119 18d
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Marcin Tybura 47¢ $50 81d
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 100d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes $15 180d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $21 191d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $10 202d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? BUY No $3 211d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? BUY No 10¢ $10 211d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Makhachev 100¢ $70 214d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 74¢ $52 214d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $10 315d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records