Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x206f…f2f9 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%34W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$37
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +16.2% +5.1% 76% 54% +7.2%
≤30d 50 +3.1% -6.7% 68% 46% -5.3%
≤90d 50 +3.1% -6.7% 68% 46% -5.3%
all 50 +3.1% -6.7% 68% 46% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 46% -5.3%
10% -15.6% 30% -14.3%
15% -23.8% 20% -22.6%
20% -31.2% 18% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses34 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 82¢ 65¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +240%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 34m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 16h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $3.12 (match) · 85 history records