Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x2070…cf31
crypto · 52 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)42 / 52
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 10 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 28¢ 43¢ $21 $33 +$11 (+52%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 62¢ 66¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -84%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +208%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +132%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -55%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $2 +$2 +80%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +96%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$11
crypto 40% −$17
sports 10% +$3
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 66¢ $0 24m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $1 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 64¢ $0 36m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $1 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $1 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 66¢ $1 46m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 36¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $13 3h
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 31% -25.6%
≤30d 42 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 31% -25.6%
≤90d 42 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 31% -25.6%
all 42 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 31% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 31% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 29% -32.7%
15% -42.2% 21% -39.2%
20% -47.8% 21% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.51 · official $62.51 (match) · 209 history records