Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x2070…2c63 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$82 (+20%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$1
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$27
crypto 33% −$11
sports 17% +$68
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -18.5% -26.3% 52% 44% -10.0%
≤30d 28 -12.7% -21.0% 54% 46% +14.5%
≤90d 46 -1.1% -10.6% 52% 48% +11.7%
all 47 -3.2% -12.5% 51% 47% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% +8.6%
10% -20.8% 47% -1.8%
15% -28.5% 36% -11.2%
20% -35.5% 26% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage95d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$48 +189%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$5 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$2 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $54 +$77 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 22 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 21 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 20 $3 +$8 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 20 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $1 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 19 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 19 $4 +$9 +218%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $14 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $11 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 39h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 41h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.65 · official $44.65 (match) · 85 history records