Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2072…5202 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+4%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$46
other 16% −$57
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -16.4% -24.3% 36% 36% -21.0%
≤30d 14 -16.4% -24.3% 36% 36% -21.0%
≤90d 14 -16.4% -24.3% 36% 36% -21.0%
all 14 -16.4% -24.3% 36% 36% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 36% -21.0%
10% -31.6% 29% -28.6%
15% -38.2% 29% -35.5%
20% -44.3% 7% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$24 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 −$27 -34%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $50 −$6 -11%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 −$64 -64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $99 +$35 +36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$36 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 +$38 +93%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $59 −$16 -27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$5 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 41m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 74¢ $45 48m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $35 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $100 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $134 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $99 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $99 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $100 16h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $49 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $1 43h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $43 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $59 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $41 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $100 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $19 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $19 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $17 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $17 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 25¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Af BUY 9¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records