Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

20 0x2073…db8c crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+20.0%	+8.6%	29%	29%	+48.4%
≤30d	7	+20.0%	+8.6%	29%	29%	+48.4%
≤90d	7	+20.0%	+8.6%	29%	29%	+48.4%
all	7	+20.0%	+8.6%	29%	29%	+48.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.6%	29%	+48.4%
10%	-1.8%	29%	+34.2%
15%	-11.3%	29%	+21.2%
20%	-20.0%	29%	+9.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +64% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$104 vs −$18 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 28	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 28	$42	+$191	+456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 28	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 28	$26	−$2	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 28	$71	−$12	-17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 28	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 28	$26	+$17	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$42	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	SELL Down	25¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$18	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	SELL Down	15¢	$21	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	SELL Down	17¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	SELL Down	69¢	$43	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$26	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records