Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2075…09d0 crypto 1743 markets active 4d ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$766 (-1%) realized −$766 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%1164W / 593L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days−$303
14 days−$303
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$754
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -37.9% -43.8% 39% 29% -47.3%
≤30d 51 -37.9% -43.8% 39% 29% -47.3%
≤90d 1017 -3.2% -12.4% 65% 37% -11.9%
all 1757 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 46% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 46% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 5% -19.7%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$766
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1164 / 593
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1757 / 1743
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1757 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$10 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$13 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$10 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$14 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$9 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records