Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2076…78d5 crypto 1454 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%773W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day128.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,407
7 days−$1,470
14 days−$821
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,806
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -22.7% -30.1% 42% 42% -26.1%
≤30d 1376 +3.7% -6.2% 56% 56% -11.7%
≤90d 1376 +3.7% -6.2% 56% 56% -11.7%
all 1376 +3.7% -6.2% 56% 56% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 56% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 55% -20.2%
15% -23.4% 52% -27.9%
20% -30.9% 48% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses773 / 603
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1376 / 1454
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day128.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1376 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$16 -145%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $43 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $108 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $70 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $57 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records