Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2077…8161 sports 1517 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,154 (-2%) realized −$1,304 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%847W / 656L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$574est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$890
7 days−$2,375
14 days−$1,119
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 238 -24.9% -32.1% 45% 45% -24.0%
≤30d 456 -1.2% -10.7% 57% 57% -10.8%
≤90d 1503 -1.0% -10.5% 56% 55% -14.1%
all 1503 -1.0% -10.5% 56% 55% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 55% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 53% -22.3%
15% -26.9% 49% -29.8%
20% -34.0% 39% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$30 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$950
Realized−$1,304
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses847 / 656
Est. fees paid−$574
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1503 / 1517
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Otto Virtanen 82¢ 81¢ $257 $255 −$2 (-1%)
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ 90¢ $209 $246 +$37 (+18%)
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Christopher OConnell 63¢ 100¢ $77 $123 +$45 (+59%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 55¢ 62¢ $105 $120 +$14 (+14%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 46¢ 100¢ $50 $107 +$58 (+116%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 48¢ 48¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) Dallas Wings 47¢ 50¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 56¢ 52¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Seattle Storm 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Katie Volynets 60¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-24%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $106 +$51 +48%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $127 −$35 -28%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $82 +$57 +70%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $62 +$47 +76%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $26 −$25 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $67 +$66 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 17 $108 −$36 -33%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $197 −$197 -100%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 17 $279 −$279 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$5 +67%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $233 +$72 +31%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $196 +$55 +28%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $310 +$177 +57%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $20 +$19 +98%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $261 +$114 +44%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $250 +$46 +18%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $136 +$54 +40%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $35 +$13 +36%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $205 +$89 +44%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $219 +$67 +31%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $39 +$31 +79%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $219 +$51 +23%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $40 +$20 +50%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $21 +$12 +55%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $36 +$17 +48%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $129 +$49 +38%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $31 +$16 +50%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $181 +$79 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 3m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $29 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill BUY Otto Virtanen 82¢ $258 4h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $211 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 68¢ $12 5h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $6 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $37 6h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 63¢ $78 6h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 72¢ $26 7h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 56¢ $62 7h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $82 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $15 10h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 41¢ $5 10h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $67 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $5 16h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $8 19h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 55¢ $107 20h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 67¢ $106 21h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 69¢ $102 21h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 69¢ $13 21h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 76¢ $233 21h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 47¢ $14 22h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 78¢ $196 23h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand SELL Raphael Perot 100¢ $260 24h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace SELL Jazmin Ortenzi 100¢ $251 24h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers SELL LG Twins 100¢ $37 24h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 69¢ $64 25h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Gustavo Heide 71¢ $136 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $949.51 · official $918.29 · 3500 history records