Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x2077…c59d sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$29 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%60W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$36
14 days+$45
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$19
other 21% +$32
politics 2% −$4
crypto 2% −$9
weather 1% $0
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +2.7% -7.1% 67% 41% -7.9%
≤30d 64 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 38% -7.8%
≤90d 103 -16.2% -24.2% 55% 34% -9.2%
all 107 -14.7% -22.8% 56% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 36% -9.1%
10% -30.2% 29% -17.8%
15% -36.9% 25% -25.8%
20% -43.1% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses60 / 47
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage460d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $32 −$5 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $102 −$7 -7%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $101 −$4 -4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$2 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 +$7 +46%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $286 −$50 -18%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 +$13 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +39%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$9 +44%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $202 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $200 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $107 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $95 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 62¢ $10 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 59¢ $97 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Under 83¢ $52 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 43¢ $16 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $15 34h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 37h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Under 76¢ $25 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $15 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $142 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.75 · official $67.75 (match) · 234 history records