Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x2080…d262 sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$279 (-5%) realized −$921 · open +$642
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%54W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$125
other 10% +$255
politics 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 112 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 46% -16.2%
all 112 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 46% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 46% -16.2%
10% -15.8% 45% -24.2%
15% -23.9% 45% -31.5%
20% -31.4% 42% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,842
Realized−$921
Unrealized+$642
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses54 / 58
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage82d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Gdansk: Gina Feistel vs Anastasiya Sobolieva Anastasiya Sobolieva 68¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,474 +$474 (+47%)
Set Handicap: Sobolieva (-1.5) vs Feistel (+1.5) Sobolieva 51¢ 100¢ $100 $196 +$96 (+96%)
Feistel vs. Sobolieva: Match O/U 21.5 Under 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Oeiras 3: Jaime Faria vs Roman Safiullin Apr 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 17 $106 −$21 -20%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $111 −$109 -99%
Henrique Rocha vs. Pablo Llamas Ruiz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Apr 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Busan: Alex Bolt vs Rio Noguchi Apr 17 $60 +$41 +68%
Busan: Sho Shimabukuro vs Leandro Riedi Apr 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Oeiras 3: Nicolas Jarry vs Jaime Faria Apr 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens Apr 16 $50 +$25 +50%
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Rei Sakamoto Apr 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Oeiras 3: Roman Safiullin vs Luca Van Assche Apr 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Clippers (-4.5) Apr 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $20 +$33 +165%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $30 +$30 +101%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $30 −$21 -69%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Jelena Ostapenko vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 15 $20 +$41 +206%
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi Apr 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneau Apr 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Busan: Pavel Kotov vs Leandro Riedi Apr 15 $30 −$30 -98%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou Bergs Apr 15 $30 +$19 +64%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton Apr 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Oeiras 3: Joel Schwaerzler vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Apr 15 $30 +$25 +82%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Lilli Tagge Apr 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $30 +$40 +134%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Tallahassee: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Apr 14 $20 +$61 +306%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $25 +$41 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $25 +$25 +102%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 14 $30 −$19 -64%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $20 +$4 +22%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? Apr 14 $25 +$33 +134%
Ferran Torres: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $20 +$30 +151%
Tallahassee: Darwin Blanch vs Daniel Galan Apr 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Oeiras 3: Guy Den Ouden vs Jaime Faria Apr 14 $25 +$35 +138%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Terence Atmane Apr 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Warriors vs. Clippers: 1H Moneyline Apr 12 $10 −$10 -98%
1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Apr 12 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $31 +$19 +62%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Pedro Martinez Apr 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Wuning: Harry Wendelken vs Pavel Kotov Apr 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Madrid: Zsombor Piros vs Jurij Rodionov Apr 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $25 +$54 +216%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $30 +$28 +93%
Yibing Wu vs. Darwin Blanch: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Madrid: Nicolas Jarry vs Jurij Rodionov Apr 11 $20 +$68 +341%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Feistel vs. Sobolieva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 1h
Set Handicap: Sobolieva (-1.5) vs Feistel (+1.5) BUY Sobolieva 51¢ $101 1h
ITF Gdansk: Gina Feistel vs Anastasiya Sobolieva BUY Anastasiya Sobolieva 68¢ $1,010 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 51¢ $500 13h
Oeiras 3: Jaime Faria vs Roman Safiullin BUY Jaime Faria 47¢ $100 71d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 71d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 30¢ $85 71d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton BUY Joao Fonseca 58¢ $111 71d
Henrique Rocha vs. Pablo Llamas Ruiz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 39¢ $40 71d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $151 71d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 66¢ $101 71d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 72d
Busan: Alex Bolt vs Rio Noguchi BUY Alex Bolt 59¢ $60 72d
Busan: Sho Shimabukuro vs Leandro Riedi BUY Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ $35 72d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 73d
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Rei Sakamoto 39¢ $30 73d
Oeiras 3: Roman Safiullin vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 66¢ $40 73d
Oeiras 3: Nicolas Jarry vs Jaime Faria BUY Jaime Faria 48¢ $50 73d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens BUY Karolina Muchova 66¢ $50 73d
Spread: Clippers (-4.5) BUY Clippers 56¢ $35 73d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 48¢ $35 73d
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $53 73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL No 100¢ $60 73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 49¢ $30 73d
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $9 73d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Jelena Ostapenko vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $61 73d
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 29¢ $20 73d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Jelena Ostapenko vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 32¢ $20 73d
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 42¢ $75 73d
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 63¢ $30 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,841.68 · official $1,841.68 (match) · 189 history records